The new Governor of Bali, Made Mangku Pastika has set to double up per capita income (PCI) in Bali within his five years administration. However many analysts consider the target as irrational. “Looking into economic structure and medium term budget (2008-2013), the target is very though to achieve,” said the chairman of the 3rd commission of Bali Provincial House of Representatives (DPRD Bali), Drs. Wayan Gunawan and member of the 2nd commission of DPRD Bali, Drs. Kesuma Putra, Ak. after attending the joint meeting between expert staff of the house and the government on Monday (December 15th). The meeting was chaired by the Vice Chairman of DPRD Bali, I.G.K. Adiputera, S.H.

Current PCI in Bali this year is 12.24 million rupiah, which is expected to increase to 24.48 million rupiah by 2013. The ambitious target has to be supported by economic growth of Bali in the corresponding period. This year Bali economy grows by 5.8 percent. Target on economic growth in Bali for 2009 is 7.64 percent, which will be quite a challenge to meet especially as the whole world is facing severe financial turmoil.

Kesuma Putra also expressed his doubt on figures presented in the mid-term development plan (RPJM). He took the figures on page no. 92 of the document which mentioned that the economic growth will be doubled up withing the next five years. Assuming that the target for this year is 7.64%, doubling it up means that economic growth of Bali in 2013 will be 15.28%.

To meet the targeted beyond 7% economic growth Bali has to gave very strong economic structure in addition to defeating inflation and attracting investment. At the moment Gunawan said that Bali economy is depending on primary sector (farming) 19.07%, secondary (small industry) 15.08%, and tertiary (tourism) 65.04%. In 2013 tertiary sector is projected to decrease down to 16.6%, secondary to decrease down to 14.4%, and tertiary to increase by 3% to 68%. “Looking into those projection, doubling up PCI is very hard to achieve as the tertiary sector will only grow by 3% whilst the others will be decreasing,” he said.

The expert team of Bali Provincial Government, Prof. Dr. Wirawan has immediately neglected the opinions. He said that proportional economic growth does not necessarily require equal growth among primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors as there are productivity gaps to consider among those three sectors.

Prof. Dr. Dewa Suparta admitted that farming sector is at the weakest on productivity. Among the reasons are number of farmers which is too high compared to the size of land. There are 636.000 farmers with an average of land space of 0.38 hectare. Average income they are getting is ranging between 10,000 to 20,000 rupiah per day. On the other hand, weak human resource holds Bali in improving tourism sector up to maximum extent. In the future we have to decrease number of farmers to increase their productivity by moving part of them to other potential sectors.